The disproportionate case–fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries with the highest vaccination rates and the rest of the world

Haider, Najmul; Nayeem Hasan, Mohammad; Guitian, Javier; Khan, Rumi A.; McCoy, David; Ntoumi, Francine; Dar, Osman; Ansumana, Rashid; Uddin, Md. Jamal; Zumla, Alimuddin; Kock, Richard A.

Abstract

Objectives
The global reported cumulative case–fatality ratios (rCFRs) and excess mortality rates of the 20 countries with the highest coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination rates, the rest of the world and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) were compared before and after the commencement of vaccination programmes.

Methods
A time series model was used to understand the trend of rCFR over time, and a generalized linear mixed model was used to understand the effect of vaccination on rCFR.

Results
By 31 December 2022, an average of 260.3 doses of COVID-19 vaccine per 100 population had been administered in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 152.1 doses in the rest of the world and 51.2 doses in SSA. The mean rCFR of COVID-19 had decreased by 69.0% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, 26.5% in the rest of the world and 7.6% in SSA. Excess mortality had decreased by 48.7% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 62.5% in the rest of the world and 60.7% in SSA. In a generalized linear mixed model, the reported number of vaccine doses administered (/100 population) (odds ratio 0.64) was associated with a steeper reduction in COVID-19 rCFR.

Conclusions
Vaccine equity and faster roll-out across the world is critically important in reducing COVID-19 transmission and CFR.

Citation

Haider, N., Nayeem Hasan, M., Guitian, J., Khan, R. A., McCoy, D., Ntoumi, F., …Kock, R. A. (2023). The disproportionate case–fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries with the highest vaccination rates and the rest of the world. IJID Regions, 6, 159-166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijregi.2023.01.011

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jan 21, 2023
• Online Publication Date: Jan 26, 2023
• Publication Date: 2023-03
• Publicly Available Date: May 30, 2023
• Journal: IJID Regions
• Print ISSN: 2772-7076
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 6
• Pages: 159-166
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijregi.2023.01.011
• Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2Case–fatality ratio; Vaccine equity; Variants of concern; Vaccine roll out
• Publisher URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772707623000115?via%3Dihub