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Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

Thackeray, Stephen J.; Henrys, Peter A.; Hemming, Deborah; Bell, James R.; Botham, Marc S.; Burthe, Sarah; Helaouet, Pierre; Johns, David G.; Jones, Ian D.; Leech, David I.; Mackay, Eleanor B.; Massimino, Dario; Atkinson, Sian; Bacon, Philip J.; Brereton, Tom M.; Carvalho, Laurence; Clutton-Brock, Tim H.; Duck, Callan; Edwards, Martin; Malcolm Elliott, J.; Hall, Stephen J.G.; Harrington, Richard; Pearce-Higgins, James W.; Høye, Toke T.; Kruuk, Loeske E.B.; Pemberton, Josephine M.; Sparks, Tim H.; Thompson, Paul M.; White, Ian; Winfield, Ian J.; Wanless, Sarah

Authors

Stephen J. Thackeray

Peter A. Henrys

Deborah Hemming

Marc S. Botham

Sarah Burthe

Pierre Helaouet

David G. Johns

Ian D. Jones

David I. Leech

Eleanor B. Mackay

Dario Massimino

Sian Atkinson

Philip J. Bacon

Tom M. Brereton

Laurence Carvalho

Tim H. Clutton-Brock

Callan Duck

Martin Edwards

J. Malcolm Elliott

Stephen J.G. Hall

Richard Harrington

James W. Pearce-Higgins

Toke T. Høye

Loeske E.B. Kruuk

Josephine M. Pemberton

Tim H. Sparks

Paul M. Thompson

Ian White

Ian J. Winfield

Sarah Wanless



Contributors

Thackeray, Stephen J.
Other

Henrys, Peter A.
Other

Hemming, Deborah
Other

Bell, James R.
Other

Botham, Marc S.
Other

Burthe, Sarah
Other

Helaouet, Pierre
Other

Johns, David G.
Other

Jones, Ian D.
Other

Leech, David I.
Other

Mackay, Eleanor B.
Other

Massimino, Dario
Other

Atkinson, Sian
Other

Bacon, Philip J.
Other

Brereton, Tom M.
Other

Carvalho, Laurence
Other

Clutton-Brock, Tim H.
Other

Duck, Callan
Other

Edwards, Martin
Other

Elliott, J. Malcolm
Other

Hall, Stephen J. G.
Other

Harrington, Richard
Other

Pearce-Higgins, James W.
Other

Hoye, Toke T.
Other

Kruuk, Loeske E. B.
Other

Pemberton, Josephine M.
Other

Sparks, Tim H.
Other

Thompson, Paul M.
Other

White, Ian
Other

Winfield, Ian J.
Other

Wanless, Sarah
Other

Abstract

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5–2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1–14.8 days earlier on average).

Citation

Thackeray, S. J., Henrys, P. A., Hemming, D., Bell, J. R., Botham, M. S., Burthe, S., …Wanless, S. (2016). Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels. Nature, 535, 241–245. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18608

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date May 26, 2016
Online Publication Date Jun 29, 2016
Publication Date Jul 14, 2016
Deposit Date Feb 9, 2024
Journal Nature
Print ISSN 1476-4687
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 535
Pages 241–245
DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18608
Publisher URL https://www.nature.com/articles/nature18608


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