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The Value of Clinical Prediction Models in General Practice: A Qualitative Study Exploring the Perspectives of People With Lived Experience of Depression and General Practitioners (2024)
Journal Article
Moriarty, A. S., Castleton, J., McMillan, D., Riley, R. D., Snell, K. I. E., Archer, L., …Chew‐Graham, C. A. (2024). The Value of Clinical Prediction Models in General Practice: A Qualitative Study Exploring the Perspectives of People With Lived Experience of Depression and General Practitioners. Health Expectations, 27(6), Article e70059. https://doi.org/10.1111/hex.70059

Introduction: Prediction models are increasingly being used to guide clinical decision making in primary care. There is a lack of evidence exploring the views of patients and general practitioners (GPs) in primary care around their use and implementa... Read More about The Value of Clinical Prediction Models in General Practice: A Qualitative Study Exploring the Perspectives of People With Lived Experience of Depression and General Practitioners.

Community-based complex interventions to sustain independence in older people, stratified by frailty: a systematic review and network meta-analysis (2024)
Journal Article
Crocker, T. F., Lam, N., Ensor, J., Jordão, M., Bajpai, R., Bond, M., …Clegg, A. (2024). Community-based complex interventions to sustain independence in older people, stratified by frailty: a systematic review and network meta-analysis. Health Technology Assessment, 28(48), 224. https://doi.org/10.3310/HNRP2514

Background
Sustaining independence is important for older people, but there is insufficient guidance about which community health and care services to implement.

Objectives
To synthesise evidence of the effectiveness of community services to sus... Read More about Community-based complex interventions to sustain independence in older people, stratified by frailty: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

Development and initial evaluation of a clinical prediction model for risk of treatment resistance in first-episode psychosis: Schizophrenia Prediction of Resistance to Treatment (SPIRIT) (2024)
Journal Article
Farooq, S., Hattle, M., Kingstone, T., Ajnakina, O., Dazzan, P., Demjaha, A., …Riley, R. D. (2024). Development and initial evaluation of a clinical prediction model for risk of treatment resistance in first-episode psychosis: Schizophrenia Prediction of Resistance to Treatment (SPIRIT). British Journal of Psychiatry, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1192/bjp.2024.101

Background
A clinical tool to estimate the risk of treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS) in people with first-episode psychosis (FEP) would inform early detection of TRS and overcome the delay of up to 5 years in starting TRS medication.

Aims... Read More about Development and initial evaluation of a clinical prediction model for risk of treatment resistance in first-episode psychosis: Schizophrenia Prediction of Resistance to Treatment (SPIRIT).

Calibration plots for multistate risk predictions models (2024)
Journal Article
Pate, A., Sperrin, M., Riley, R. D., Peek, N., Van Staa, T., Sergeant, J. C., …Martin, G. P. (in press). Calibration plots for multistate risk predictions models. Statistics in Medicine, https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.10094

Introduction
There is currently no guidance on how to assess the calibration of multistate models used for risk prediction. We introduce several techniques that can be used to produce calibration plots for the transition probabilities of a multistat... Read More about Calibration plots for multistate risk predictions models.

Development of the Community-based complex Interventions to sustain Independence in Older People (CII-OP) typology: a qualitative synthesis of interventions in randomised controlled trials (2024)
Journal Article
Crocker, T. F., Jordão, M., Lam, N., Ramiz, R., Mirza, L., Patel, I., …Walford, R. (2024). Development of the Community-based complex Interventions to sustain Independence in Older People (CII-OP) typology: a qualitative synthesis of interventions in randomised controlled trials. Age and ageing, 53(5), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afae102

Introduction Community-based services to sustain independence for older people have varying configurations. A typology of these interventions would improve service provision and research by providing conceptual clarity and enabling the identification... Read More about Development of the Community-based complex Interventions to sustain Independence in Older People (CII-OP) typology: a qualitative synthesis of interventions in randomised controlled trials.

Development and external validation of the eFalls tool: a multivariable prediction model for the risk of ED attendance or hospitalisation with a fall or fracture in older adults. (2024)
Journal Article
Archer, L., L, A., Relton, S. D., SD, R., Akbari, A., A, A., …investigators, T. E. (2024). Development and external validation of the eFalls tool: a multivariable prediction model for the risk of ED attendance or hospitalisation with a fall or fracture in older adults. Age and ageing, 53(3), Article afae057. https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afae057

Falls are common in older adults and can devastate personal independence through injury such as fracture and fear of future falls. Methods to identify people for falls prevention interventions are currently limited, with high risks of bias in publish... Read More about Development and external validation of the eFalls tool: a multivariable prediction model for the risk of ED attendance or hospitalisation with a fall or fracture in older adults..

Community based complex interventions to sustain independence in older people: systematic review and network meta-analysis (2024)
Journal Article
Crocker, T. F., Ensor, J., Lam, N., Jordão, M., Bajpai, R., Bond, M., …Clegg, A. (2024). Community based complex interventions to sustain independence in older people: systematic review and network meta-analysis. BMJ, 384, Article e077764. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-077764

To synthesise evidence of the effectiveness of community based complex interventions, grouped according to their intervention components, to sustain independence for older people. Systematic review and network meta-analysis. Medline, Embase, CINAHL,... Read More about Community based complex interventions to sustain independence in older people: systematic review and network meta-analysis.

Risk-stratified monitoring for sulfasalazine toxicity: prognostic model development and validation (2024)
Journal Article
Abhishek, A., Grainge, M., Card, T., Williams, H. C., Taal, M. W., Aithal, G. P., …Riley, R. (2024). Risk-stratified monitoring for sulfasalazine toxicity: prognostic model development and validation. RMD Open, 10(1), Article e003980. https://doi.org/10.1136/rmdopen-2023-003980

Background: Sulfasalazine-induced cytopenia, nephrotoxicity and hepatotoxicity is uncommon during long-term treatment. Some guidelines recommend 3 monthly monitoring blood tests indefinitely during long-term treatment while others recommend stopping... Read More about Risk-stratified monitoring for sulfasalazine toxicity: prognostic model development and validation.

Global disease burden of and risk factors for acute lower respiratory infections caused by respiratory syncytial virus in preterm infants and young children in 2019: a systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregated and individual participant data. (2024)
Journal Article
Wang, X., Li, Y., Shi, T., Bont, L. J., Chu, H. Y., Zar, H. J., …Nair, H. (in press). Global disease burden of and risk factors for acute lower respiratory infections caused by respiratory syncytial virus in preterm infants and young children in 2019: a systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregated and individual participant data. Lancet, 403(10433), 1241-1253. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2824%2900138-7

Infants and young children born prematurely are at high risk of severe acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). In this study, we aimed to assess the global disease burden of and risk factors for RSV-assoc... Read More about Global disease burden of and risk factors for acute lower respiratory infections caused by respiratory syncytial virus in preterm infants and young children in 2019: a systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregated and individual participant data..

Prognostic factors for liver, blood and kidney adverse events from glucocorticoid sparing immune-suppressing drugs in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: a prognostic systematic review (2024)
Journal Article
Leaviss, J., Carroll, C., Essat, M., van der Windt, D., J Grainge, M., Card, T., …Abhishek, A. (2024). Prognostic factors for liver, blood and kidney adverse events from glucocorticoid sparing immune-suppressing drugs in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: a prognostic systematic review. RMD Open, 10(1), Article e003588. https://doi.org/10.1136/rmdopen-2023-003588

Background Immune-suppressing drugs can cause liver, kidney or blood toxicity. Prognostic factors for these adverse-events are poorly understood.

Purpose To ascertain prognostic factors associated with liver, blood or kidney adverse-events in peop... Read More about Prognostic factors for liver, blood and kidney adverse events from glucocorticoid sparing immune-suppressing drugs in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: a prognostic systematic review.

Factors affecting the implementation of calcium supplementation strategies during pregnancy to prevent pre-eclampsia: a mixed-methods systematic review (2023)
Journal Article
Cormick, G., Moraa, H., Zahroh, R. I., Allotey, J., Rocha, T., Peña-Rosas, J. P., …Bohren, M. A. (2023). Factors affecting the implementation of calcium supplementation strategies during pregnancy to prevent pre-eclampsia: a mixed-methods systematic review. BMJ Open, 13(12), Article e070677. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2022-070677

Objectives: Daily calcium supplements are recommended for pregnant women from 20 weeks’ gestation to prevent pre-eclampsia in populations with low dietary calcium intake. We aimed to improve understanding of barriers and facilitators for calcium supp... Read More about Factors affecting the implementation of calcium supplementation strategies during pregnancy to prevent pre-eclampsia: a mixed-methods systematic review.

Risk of bias assessments in individual participant data meta-analyses of test accuracy and prediction models: a review shows improvements are needed. (2023)
Journal Article
Levis, B., Snell, K. I., Damen, J. A., Hattle, M., Ensor, J., Dhiman, P., …Riley, R. D. (in press). Risk of bias assessments in individual participant data meta-analyses of test accuracy and prediction models: a review shows improvements are needed. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, S0895-4356(23)00282-2. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2023.10.022

Risk of bias assessments are important in meta-analyses of both aggregate and individual participant data (IPD). There is limited evidence on whether and how risk of bias of included studies or datasets in IPD meta-analyses (IPDMAs) is assessed. We r... Read More about Risk of bias assessments in individual participant data meta-analyses of test accuracy and prediction models: a review shows improvements are needed..

Predictors of outcome in sciatica patients following an epidural steroid injection: the POiSE prospective observational cohort study protocol (2023)
Journal Article
Stynes, S., Snell, K. I., Riley, R. D., Konstantinou, K., Cherrington, A., Daud, N., …Foster, N. E. (2023). Predictors of outcome in sciatica patients following an epidural steroid injection: the POiSE prospective observational cohort study protocol. BMJ Open, 13(11), Article e077776. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2023-077776

Introduction:
Sciatica can be very painful and, in most cases, is due to pressure on a spinal nerve root from a disc herniation with associated inflammation. For some patients, the pain persists, and one management option is a spinal epidural steroi... Read More about Predictors of outcome in sciatica patients following an epidural steroid injection: the POiSE prospective observational cohort study protocol.

Discontinuation of anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha treatment owing to blood test abnormalities, and cost-effectiveness of alternate blood monitoring strategies (2023)
Journal Article
Abhishek, A., Stevenson, M. D., Nakafero, G., Grainge, M. J., Evans, I., Alabas, O., …Williams, H. C. (2024). Discontinuation of anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha treatment owing to blood test abnormalities, and cost-effectiveness of alternate blood monitoring strategies. British Journal of Dermatology, 190(4), 559–564. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjd/ljad430

Background
There is no evidence base to support the use of 6-monthly monitoring blood tests for the early detection of liver, blood and renal toxicity during established anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) treatment.

Objectives
To evaluate... Read More about Discontinuation of anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha treatment owing to blood test abnormalities, and cost-effectiveness of alternate blood monitoring strategies.

Regularized parametric survival modeling to improve risk prediction models (2023)
Journal Article
Hoogland, J., Debray, T., Crowther, M., Riley, R., IntHout, J., Reitsma, J., & Zwinderman, A. (2024). Regularized parametric survival modeling to improve risk prediction models. Biometrical Journal, 66(1), Article 2200319

We propose to combine the benefits of flexible parametric survival modeling and regularization to improve risk prediction modeling in the context of time-to-event data. Thereto, we introduce ridge, lasso, elastic net, and group lasso penalties for bo... Read More about Regularized parametric survival modeling to improve risk prediction models.

Two‐stage or not two‐stage? That is the question for IPD meta‐analysis projects (2023)
Journal Article
Riley, R. D., Ensor, J., Hattle, M., Papadimitropoulou, K., & Morris, T. P. (in press). Two‐stage or not two‐stage? That is the question for IPD meta‐analysis projects. Research Synthesis Methods, 14(6), 903-910. https://doi.org/10.1002/jrsm.1661

Individual participant data meta‐analysis (IPDMA) projects obtain, check, harmonise and synthesise raw data from multiple studies. When undertaking the meta‐analysis, researchers must decide between a two‐stage or a one‐stage approach. In a two‐stage... Read More about Two‐stage or not two‐stage? That is the question for IPD meta‐analysis projects.

Vitamin D supplementation for improving bone density in vitamin D–deficient children and adolescents: systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (2023)
Journal Article
Wu, F., El-Hajj Fuleihan, G., Cai, G., Lamberg-Allardt, C., Viljakainen, H. T., Rahme, M., …Winzenberg, T. (2023). Vitamin D supplementation for improving bone density in vitamin D–deficient children and adolescents: systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 118(3), 498-506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajcnut.2023.05.028

Background
Vitamin D supplements are widely used for improving bone health in children and adolescents, but their effects in vitamin D–deficient children are unclear.

Objectives
This study aimed to examine whether the effect of vitamin D supplem... Read More about Vitamin D supplementation for improving bone density in vitamin D–deficient children and adolescents: systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.