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Calibration plots for multistate risk predictions models (2024)
Journal Article
Pate, A., Sperrin, M., Riley, R. D., Peek, N., Van Staa, T., Sergeant, J. C., …Martin, G. P. (in press). Calibration plots for multistate risk predictions models. Statistics in Medicine, https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.10094

Introduction: There is currently no guidance on how to assess the calibration of multistate models used for risk prediction. We introduce several techniques that can be used to produce calibration plots for the transition probabilities of a multistat... Read More about Calibration plots for multistate risk predictions models.

Development and external validation of the eFalls tool: a multivariable prediction model for the risk of ED attendance or hospitalisation with a fall or fracture in older adults. (2024)
Journal Article
Archer, L., Relton, S. D., Akbari, A., Best, K., Bucknall, M., Conroy, S., …investigators, T. E. (2024). Development and external validation of the eFalls tool: a multivariable prediction model for the risk of ED attendance or hospitalisation with a fall or fracture in older adults. Age and ageing, 53(3), Article afae057. https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afae057

Falls are common in older adults and can devastate personal independence through injury such as fracture and fear of future falls. Methods to identify people for falls prevention interventions are currently limited, with high risks of bias in publish... Read More about Development and external validation of the eFalls tool: a multivariable prediction model for the risk of ED attendance or hospitalisation with a fall or fracture in older adults..

Community based complex interventions to sustain independence in older people: systematic review and network meta-analysis (2024)
Journal Article
Crocker, T. F., Ensor, J., Lam, N., Jordão, M., Bajpai, R., Bond, M., …Clegg, A. (2024). Community based complex interventions to sustain independence in older people: systematic review and network meta-analysis. BMJ, 384, Article e077764. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-077764

To synthesise evidence of the effectiveness of community based complex interventions, grouped according to their intervention components, to sustain independence for older people. Systematic review and network meta-analysis. Medline, Embase, CINAHL,... Read More about Community based complex interventions to sustain independence in older people: systematic review and network meta-analysis.

Risk-stratified monitoring for sulfasalazine toxicity: prognostic model development and validation (2024)
Journal Article
Abhishek, A., Grainge, M., Card, T., Williams, H. C., Taal, M. W., Aithal, G. P., …Riley, R. (2024). Risk-stratified monitoring for sulfasalazine toxicity: prognostic model development and validation. RMD Open, 10(1), Article e003980. https://doi.org/10.1136/rmdopen-2023-003980

Background: Sulfasalazine-induced cytopenia, nephrotoxicity and hepatotoxicity is uncommon during long-term treatment. Some guidelines recommend 3 monthly monitoring blood tests indefinitely during long-term treatment while others recommend stopping... Read More about Risk-stratified monitoring for sulfasalazine toxicity: prognostic model development and validation.

Global disease burden of and risk factors for acute lower respiratory infections caused by respiratory syncytial virus in preterm infants and young children in 2019: a systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregated and individual participant data. (2024)
Journal Article
Wang, X., Li, Y., Shi, T., Bont, L. J., Chu, H. Y., Zar, H. J., …Nair, H. (in press). Global disease burden of and risk factors for acute lower respiratory infections caused by respiratory syncytial virus in preterm infants and young children in 2019: a systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregated and individual participant data. Lancet, S0140-6736(24)00138-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2824%2900138-7

Infants and young children born prematurely are at high risk of severe acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). In this study, we aimed to assess the global disease burden of and risk factors for RSV-assoc... Read More about Global disease burden of and risk factors for acute lower respiratory infections caused by respiratory syncytial virus in preterm infants and young children in 2019: a systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregated and individual participant data..

Prognostic factors for liver, blood and kidney adverse events from glucocorticoid sparing immune-suppressing drugs in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: a prognostic systematic review (2024)
Journal Article
Leaviss, J., Carroll, C., Essat, M., van der Windt, D., J Grainge, M., Card, T., …Abhishek, A. (2024). Prognostic factors for liver, blood and kidney adverse events from glucocorticoid sparing immune-suppressing drugs in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: a prognostic systematic review. RMD Open, 10(1), Article e003588. https://doi.org/10.1136/rmdopen-2023-003588

Background Immune-suppressing drugs can cause liver, kidney or blood toxicity. Prognostic factors for these adverse-events are poorly understood. Purpose To ascertain prognostic factors associated with liver, blood or kidney adverse-events in peop... Read More about Prognostic factors for liver, blood and kidney adverse events from glucocorticoid sparing immune-suppressing drugs in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: a prognostic systematic review.

Factors affecting the implementation of calcium supplementation strategies during pregnancy to prevent pre-eclampsia: a mixed-methods systematic review (2023)
Journal Article
Cormick, G., Moraa, H., Zahroh, R. I., Allotey, J., Rocha, T., Peña-Rosas, J. P., …Bohren, M. A. (2023). Factors affecting the implementation of calcium supplementation strategies during pregnancy to prevent pre-eclampsia: a mixed-methods systematic review. BMJ Open, 13(12), Article e070677. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2022-070677

Objectives: Daily calcium supplements are recommended for pregnant women from 20 weeks’ gestation to prevent pre-eclampsia in populations with low dietary calcium intake. We aimed to improve understanding of barriers and facilitators for calcium supp... Read More about Factors affecting the implementation of calcium supplementation strategies during pregnancy to prevent pre-eclampsia: a mixed-methods systematic review.

Risk of bias assessments in individual participant data meta-analyses of test accuracy and prediction models: a review shows improvements are needed. (2023)
Journal Article
Levis, B., Snell, K. I., Damen, J. A., Hattle, M., Ensor, J., Dhiman, P., …Riley, R. D. (in press). Risk of bias assessments in individual participant data meta-analyses of test accuracy and prediction models: a review shows improvements are needed. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, S0895-4356(23)00282-2. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2023.10.022

Risk of bias assessments are important in meta-analyses of both aggregate and individual participant data (IPD). There is limited evidence on whether and how risk of bias of included studies or datasets in IPD meta-analyses (IPDMAs) is assessed. We r... Read More about Risk of bias assessments in individual participant data meta-analyses of test accuracy and prediction models: a review shows improvements are needed..

Predictors of outcome in sciatica patients following an epidural steroid injection: the POiSE prospective observational cohort study protocol (2023)
Journal Article
Stynes, S., Snell, K. I., Riley, R. D., Konstantinou, K., Cherrington, A., Daud, N., …Foster, N. E. (2023). Predictors of outcome in sciatica patients following an epidural steroid injection: the POiSE prospective observational cohort study protocol. BMJ Open, 13(11), Article e077776. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2023-077776

Introduction: Sciatica can be very painful and, in most cases, is due to pressure on a spinal nerve root from a disc herniation with associated inflammation. For some patients, the pain persists, and one management option is a spinal epidural steroi... Read More about Predictors of outcome in sciatica patients following an epidural steroid injection: the POiSE prospective observational cohort study protocol.

Discontinuation of anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha treatment owing to blood test abnormalities, and cost-effectiveness of alternate blood monitoring strategies (2023)
Journal Article
Abhishek, A., Stevenson, M. D., Nakafero, G., Grainge, M. J., Evans, I., Alabas, O., …Williams, H. C. (2024). Discontinuation of anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha treatment owing to blood test abnormalities, and cost-effectiveness of alternate blood monitoring strategies. British Journal of Dermatology, 190(4), 559–564. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjd/ljad430

Background There is no evidence base to support the use of 6-monthly monitoring blood tests for the early detection of liver, blood and renal toxicity during established anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) treatment. Objectives To evaluate... Read More about Discontinuation of anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha treatment owing to blood test abnormalities, and cost-effectiveness of alternate blood monitoring strategies.

Regularized parametric survival modeling to improve risk prediction models (2023)
Journal Article
Hoogland, J., Debray, T., Crowther, M., Riley, R., IntHout, J., Reitsma, J., & Zwinderman, A. (2024). Regularized parametric survival modeling to improve risk prediction models. Biometrical Journal, 66(1), Article 2200319

We propose to combine the benefits of flexible parametric survival modeling and regularization to improve risk prediction modeling in the context of time-to-event data. Thereto, we introduce ridge, lasso, elastic net, and group lasso penalties for bo... Read More about Regularized parametric survival modeling to improve risk prediction models.

Two‐stage or not two‐stage? That is the question for IPD meta‐analysis projects (2023)
Journal Article
Riley, R. D., Ensor, J., Hattle, M., Papadimitropoulou, K., & Morris, T. P. (in press). Two‐stage or not two‐stage? That is the question for IPD meta‐analysis projects. Research Synthesis Methods, 14(6), 903-910. https://doi.org/10.1002/jrsm.1661

Individual participant data meta‐analysis (IPDMA) projects obtain, check, harmonise and synthesise raw data from multiple studies. When undertaking the meta‐analysis, researchers must decide between a two‐stage or a one‐stage approach. In a two‐stage... Read More about Two‐stage or not two‐stage? That is the question for IPD meta‐analysis projects.

Vitamin D supplementation for improving bone density in vitamin D–deficient children and adolescents: systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (2023)
Journal Article
Wu, F., El-Hajj Fuleihan, G., Cai, G., Lamberg-Allardt, C., Viljakainen, H. T., Rahme, M., …Winzenberg, T. (2023). Vitamin D supplementation for improving bone density in vitamin D–deficient children and adolescents: systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 118(3), 498-506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajcnut.2023.05.028

Background Vitamin D supplements are widely used for improving bone health in children and adolescents, but their effects in vitamin D–deficient children are unclear. Objectives This study aimed to examine whether the effect of vitamin D supplem... Read More about Vitamin D supplementation for improving bone density in vitamin D–deficient children and adolescents: systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Can prognostic factors for indirect muscle injuries in elite football (soccer) players be identified using data from preseason screening? An exploratory analysis using routinely collected periodic health examination records (2023)
Journal Article
Hughes, T., Riley, R., Callaghan, M. J., & Sergeant, J. C. (2023). Can prognostic factors for indirect muscle injuries in elite football (soccer) players be identified using data from preseason screening? An exploratory analysis using routinely collected periodic health examination records. BMJ Open, 13(1), Article e052772. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-052772

Background: In elite football, periodic health examination (PHE) may be useful for injury risk prediction. Objective: To explore whether PHE-derived variables are prognostic factors for indirect muscle injuries (IMIs) in elite players. Design:... Read More about Can prognostic factors for indirect muscle injuries in elite football (soccer) players be identified using data from preseason screening? An exploratory analysis using routinely collected periodic health examination records.

Development and external validation of a risk prediction model for falls in patients with an indication for antihypertensive treatment: retrospective cohort study. (2022)
Journal Article
Archer, L., Koshiaris, C., Lay-Flurrie, S., Snell, K. I. E., Riley, R. D., Stevens, R., …Ogden, M. (2022). Development and external validation of a risk prediction model for falls in patients with an indication for antihypertensive treatment: retrospective cohort study. BMJ, 379, e070918. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2022-070918

OBJECTIVE: To develop and externally validate the STRAtifying Treatments In the multi-morbid Frail elderlY (STRATIFY)-Falls clinical prediction model to identify the risk of hospital admission or death from a fall in patients with an indication for a... Read More about Development and external validation of a risk prediction model for falls in patients with an indication for antihypertensive treatment: retrospective cohort study..

Study protocol for the development and internal validation of SPIRIT (Schizophrenia Prediction of Resistance to Treatment): A clinical tool for predicting risk of treatment resistance to anti-psychotics in First Episode Schizophrenia (2022)
Journal Article
Farooq, S., Hattle, M., Dazzan, P., Kingstone, T., Ajnakina, O., Shiers, D., …Van Der Windt, D. (in press). Study protocol for the development and internal validation of SPIRIT (Schizophrenia Prediction of Resistance to Treatment): A clinical tool for predicting risk of treatment resistance to anti-psychotics in First Episode Schizophrenia. BMJ Open, 12(4), https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-056420

ABSTRACTIntroductionTreatment Resistant Schizophrenia (TRS) is associated with significant impairment of functioning and high treatment costs. Identification of patients at high risk of TRS at their initial diagnosis may significantly improve clinica... Read More about Study protocol for the development and internal validation of SPIRIT (Schizophrenia Prediction of Resistance to Treatment): A clinical tool for predicting risk of treatment resistance to anti-psychotics in First Episode Schizophrenia.

Minimum sample size calculations for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a time-to-event outcome. (2021)
Journal Article
Riley, R. D., Collins, G. S., Ensor, J., Archer, L., Booth, S., Mozumder, S. I., …Snell, K. I. E. (2022). Minimum sample size calculations for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a time-to-event outcome. Statistics in Medicine, 41(7), 1280-1295. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.9275

Previous articles in Statistics in Medicine describe how to calculate the sample size required for external validation of prediction models with continuous and binary outcomes. The minimum sample size criteria aim to ensure precise estimation of key... Read More about Minimum sample size calculations for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a time-to-event outcome..