From activism to the ballot box: mediating role of social change beliefs over time

Abstract

Introduction: In recent years, there has been a global escalation in social demonstrations and political crises, signaling widespread dissatisfaction with prevailing political systems. This discontent is mirrored in decreased electoral participation and highlights the urgent need for substantial reforms in political decision-making. Methods: This study analyzes the longitudinal associations of participation in collective action with individual beliefs, emotions, voting behavior, and voting preferences in the context of Chile's constitutional plebiscite after the 2019 social unrest. Using a probability sample (n = 4447) we test two longitudinal mediation models using structural equation modeling. Specifically, we investigate the mediating roles of anger toward the political system and beliefs in social change between past participation in collective action and electoral participation. Results: The findings reveal that past participation in collective action at Time 1 is significantly associated with electoral participation (both behavior and preference) at Time 3. This association is mediated exclusively by beliefs in social change at Time 3 but not by anger toward the system. Discussion: We discuss how these findings highlight the role of collective action in shaping political engagement over time, advancing our understanding of the mechanisms linking protest participation to electoral behavior and informing strategies for democratic engagement.