Skip to main content

Research Repository

Advanced Search

Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study

Yu

Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study Thumbnail


Authors



Abstract

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death among patients receiving peritoneal dialysis. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for cardiovascular death within 2 years after the initiation of peritoneal dialysis (PD). A cohort including all patients registered with the Henan Peritoneal Dialysis Registry (HPDR) between 2007 and 2014. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the risk prediction model. The HPDR data was randomly divided into two cohorts with 60% (1,835 patients) for model derivation, and 40% (1,219 patients) for model validation. The absolute rate of cardiovascular mortality was 14.2% and 14.4 in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. Age, body mass index, blood pressure, serum lipids, fasting glucose, sodium, albumin, total protein, and phosphorus were the strongest predictors of cardiovascular mortality in the final model. Discrimination of the model was similar in both cohorts, with a C statistic above 0.70, with good calibration of observed and predicted risks. The new prediction model that has been developed and validated with clinical measurements that are available at the point of initiation of PD and could serve as a tool to screen for patients at high risk of cardiovascular death and tailor more intensive cardioprotective care.

Acceptance Date Jan 15, 2018
Publication Date Jan 31, 2018
Journal Scientific Reports
Print ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20160-3
Publisher URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20160-3

Files







You might also like



Downloadable Citations