Development and validation of a prediction model for self-reported mobility decline in community-dwelling older adults.

Sanchez-Santos, MT; Williamson, E; Nicolson, PJA; Bruce, J; Collins, GS; Mallen, C; Griffiths, F; Garret, A; Morris, A; Slark, M; Lamb, SE; OPAL study team, .

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate two models to predict 2-year risk of self-reported mobility decline among community-dwelling older adults.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We used data from a prospective cohort study of people aged 65 years and over in England. Mobility status was assessed using the EQ-5D-5L mobility question. The models were based on the outcome: (Model 1) any mobility decline at two years; (Model 2) new-onset of persistent mobility problems over two years. LASSO logistic regression was used to select predictors. Model performance was assessed using c-statistics, calibration plot, Brier scores and decision-curve analyses. Models were internally validated using bootstrapping.

RESULTS: Over 18% of participants who could walk reported mobility decline at year two (Model 1), and 7.1% with no mobility problems at baseline, reported new-onset of mobility problems after two years (Model 2). Thirteen and six out of thirty-one variables were selected as predictors in Model 1 and 2, respectively. Models 1 and 2 had a c-statistic of 0.740 and 0.765 (optimism<0.013), and Brier score=0.136 and 0.069, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Two prediction models for mobility decline were developed and internally validated. They are based on self-reported variables and could serve as simple assessments in primary care after external validation.

Citation

Sanchez-Santos, M., Williamson, E., Nicolson, P., Bruce, J., Collins, G., Mallen, C., …OPAL study team, .. (2022). Development and validation of a prediction model for self-reported mobility decline in community-dwelling older adults. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 70-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.09.002

• Acceptance Date: Sep 12, 2022
• Publication Date: Sep 12, 2022
• Journal: Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
• Print ISSN: 0895-4356
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Pages: 70-79
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.09.002
• Keywords: Prognostic; Impaired mobility; General population; Aging; Prediction model; Elderly; Model performance
• Publisher URL: https://www.jclinepi.com/article/S0895-4356(22)00223-2/fulltext