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A Prognostic Approach to Defining Chronic Pain Across a Range of Musculoskeletal Pain Sites

Muller, Sara; Thomas, Elaine; Dunn, Kate M.; Mallen, Christian D.

Authors

Elaine Thomas



Abstract

Objectives:
To test whether the prognostic definition of chronic pain, which has previously been applied in specific anatomic areas, performed well in a cohort of older adults with a range of musculoskeletal pain sites.

Methods:
Data are taken from the Prognostic Research Study of adults aged 50 years and above consulting their general practitioner with any musculoskeletal pain, who completed postal surveys immediately after consultation and 12 months later. Baseline risk of clinically significant pain persisting at 12 months’ follow-up, defined as a Chronic Pain Grade ≥II, was calculated using the prognostic approach, which includes a range of pain and related factors. The approach was implemented using logistic regression models, and the performance of the approach, including cutoffs in the score to define groups with differing levels of risk, was assessed in terms of calibration and discrimination.

Results:
Application of the original risk cutoffs created groups with increasing proportions of chronic pain (area under the curve =0.79). However, the probability of chronic pain in each group was higher than expected by the model. New cutoffs were defined for this group of older adults: score ≤5=probability of chronic pain <20%, ≤11=probability <50%, ≤16=probability <80%, which resulted in good calibration of the model.

Discussion:
The prognostic approach to defining chronic pain is suitable for use in older adults consulting primary care with musculoskeletal pain at a range of sites, but new cutoffs are needed to allow for the higher risk profile in this group. An adapted version of this method may also have the potential for application directly within the clinical consultation.

Citation

Muller, S., Thomas, E., Dunn, K. M., & Mallen, C. D. (2013). A Prognostic Approach to Defining Chronic Pain Across a Range of Musculoskeletal Pain Sites. The Clinical Journal of Pain, 29(5), 411-416. https://doi.org/10.1097/ajp.0b013e318257099e

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Mar 22, 2012
Publication Date 2013-05
Deposit Date Jun 5, 2023
Journal The Clinical Journal of Pain
Print ISSN 0749-8047
Publisher Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 29
Issue 5
Pages 411-416
DOI https://doi.org/10.1097/ajp.0b013e318257099e
Keywords Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine; Neurology (clinical)