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Shifting Geographical Transmission Patterns: Characterizing the 2023 Fatal Dengue Outbreak in Bangladesh

Nayeem Hasan, Mohammad; Rahman, Mahbubur; Fahim Uddin, Mohammad; Ali Akbar Ashrafi, Shah; Rahman, Kazi Mizanur; Kumar Paul, Kishor; Rahman Sarker, Mohammad Ferdous; Haque, Farhana; Sharma, Avinash; Papakonstantinou, Danai; Paudyal, Priyamvada; Asaduzzaman, Md; Zumla, Alimuddin; Haider, Najmul

Authors

Mohammad Nayeem Hasan

Mahbubur Rahman

Mohammad Fahim Uddin

Shah Ali Akbar Ashrafi

Kazi Mizanur Rahman

Kishor Kumar Paul

Mohammad Ferdous Rahman Sarker

Farhana Haque

Avinash Sharma

Md Asaduzzaman

Alimuddin Zumla



Contributors

Mohammad Nayeem Hasan
Other

Mahbubur Rahman
Other

Mohammad Fahim Uddin
Other

Shah Ali Akbar Ashrafi
Other

Kazi Rahman
Other

Kishor Kumar Paul
Other

Mohammad Ferdous Rahman Sarker
Other

Farhana Haque
Other

Avinash Sharma
Other

Danai Papakonstantinou
Other

Priyamvada Paudyal
Other

Md Asaduzzaman
Other

Professor Sir Alimuddin Zumla
Other

Najmul Haider
Other

Abstract

In 2023, Bangladesh experienced its largest and deadliest outbreak of Dengue virus (DENV), reporting the highest-ever recorded annual cases and deaths. We aimed to characterize the geographical transmission of the DENV in Bangladesh. From 1 Jan – 31 Dec 2023, we extracted and analyzed daily data on dengue cases and deaths from the national Management Information System (MIS). We performed a generalized linear mixed model to identify the associations between division-wise daily dengue counts and various geographical and meteorological covariates. The number of Dengue cases reported in 2023 was 1.3 times higher than the total number recorded in the past 23 years (321,179 vs. 244,246), with twice as many deaths than the total fatalities recorded in the past 23 years (1705 vs. 849). Of the 1705 deaths in 2023, 67.4% (n=1015) expired within one day after hospital admission. The divisions southern to Dhaka had a higher dengue incidence/1000 population (2.30 vs. 0.50, p<0,0.01), and higher mean annual temperatures (27.46 vs. 26.54 °C) than the northern divisions. The average daily temperature (IRR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.11-1.14), urban and rural population ratio of the divisions (IRR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.03-1.04), showed a positive, and rainfall (IRR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.98-0.99) showed a negative association with dengue cases in each division. We observed a major geographical shift of Dengue cases from the capital city Dhaka to different districts of Bangladesh with a higher incidence of dengue in the southern division of Bangladesh, influenced by temperature and urbanization.

Citation

Nayeem Hasan, M., Rahman, M., Fahim Uddin, M., Ali Akbar Ashrafi, S., Rahman, K. M., Kumar Paul, K., …Haider, N. Shifting Geographical Transmission Patterns: Characterizing the 2023 Fatal Dengue Outbreak in Bangladesh

Working Paper Type Working Paper
Deposit Date Jun 13, 2024
Public URL https://keele-repository.worktribe.com/output/848127
Publisher URL https://gresis.osc.int//records/qka90-ra913
Additional Information Appears to be a preprint article - will assign preprint tag