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Two decades of endemic dengue in Bangladesh (2000–2022): trends, seasonality, and impact of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics

Nayeem Hasan, Mohammad; Khalil, Ibrahim; Baker Chowdhury, Muhammad Abdul; Rahman, Mahbubur; Asaduzzaman, Md; Billah, Masum; Anjuman Banu, Laila; Alam, Mahbub‐Ul; Ahsan, Atik; Traore, Tieble; Jamal Uddin, Md; Galizi, Roberto; Russo, Ilaria; Zumla, Alimuddin; Haider, Najmul

Authors

Mohammad Nayeem Hasan

Ibrahim Khalil

Muhammad Abdul Baker Chowdhury

Mahbubur Rahman

Md Asaduzzaman

Masum Billah

Laila Anjuman Banu

Mahbub‐Ul Alam

Atik Ahsan

Tieble Traore

Md Jamal Uddin

Alimuddin Zumla



Contributors

Mohammad Nayeem Hasan
Other

Ibrahim Khalil
Other

Muhammad Abdul Baker Chowdhury
Other

Mahbubur Rahman
Other

Md Asaduzzaman
Other

Dr Masum Billah
Other

banu laila
Other

Mahbub-Ul Alam
Other

Atik Ahsan
Other

Tieble Traore
Other

Md Jamal Uddin
Other

R Galizi
Other

ilaria russo
Other

Professor Sir Alimuddin Zumla
Other

Najmul Haider
Other

Abstract

The objectives of this study were to compare dengue virus (DENV) cases, deaths, case-fatality ratio [CFR], and meteorological parameters between the first and the recent decades of this century (2000-2010 vs. 2011-2022) and to describe the trends, seasonality, and impact of change of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics of dengue in Bangladesh. For the period 2000-2022, dengue cases and death data from Bangladesh's Ministry of Health and Family Welfare's website, and meteorological data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department were analyzed. A Poisson regression model was performed to identify the impact of meteorological parameters on the monthly dengue cases. A forecast of dengue cases was performed using an autoregressive integrated moving average model. Over the past 23 yr, a total of 244,246 dengue cases were reported including 849 deaths (CFR = 0.35%). The mean annual number of dengue cases increased 8 times during the second decade, with 2,216 cases during 2000-2010 vs. 18,321 cases during 2011-2022. The mean annual number of deaths doubled (21 vs. 46), but the overall CFR has decreased by one-third (0.69% vs. 0.23%). Concurrently, the annual mean temperature increased by 0.49 °C, and rainfall decreased by 314 mm with altered precipitation seasonality. Monthly mean temperature (Incidence risk ratio [IRR]: 1.26), first-lagged rainfall (IRR: 1.08), and second-lagged rainfall (IRR: 1.17) were significantly associated with monthly dengue cases. The increased local temperature and changes in rainfall seasonality might have contributed to the increased dengue cases in Bangladesh.

Citation

Nayeem Hasan, M., Khalil, I., Baker Chowdhury, M. A., Rahman, M., Asaduzzaman, M., Billah, M., …Haider, N. (in press). Two decades of endemic dengue in Bangladesh (2000–2022): trends, seasonality, and impact of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics. GreSIS - Greater South Information System, https://doi.org/10.60692/gc5zx-3tc77

Journal Article Type Other
Acceptance Date Jan 22, 2024
Online Publication Date Jan 22, 2024
Deposit Date Jul 4, 2024
Journal GreSIS
Peer Reviewed Not Peer Reviewed
DOI https://doi.org/10.60692/gc5zx-3tc77
Public URL https://keele-repository.worktribe.com/output/859154
Publisher URL https://gresis.osc.int//records/x6t6v-mbt18