The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions

Goh, Rachel Sze Jen; Chong, Bryan; Jayabaskaran, Jayanth; Jauhari, Silingga Metta; Chan, Siew Pang; Kueh, Martin Tze Wah; Shankar, Kannan; Li, Henry; Chin, Yip Han; Kong, Gwyneth; Anand, Vickram Vijay; Chan, Keith Andrew; Sukmawati, Indah; Toh, Sue Anne; Muthiah, Mark; Wang, Jiong-Wei; Tse, Gary; Mehta, Anurag; Fong, Alan; Baskaran, Lohendran; Zhong, Liang; Yap, Jonathan; Yeo, Khung Keong; Hausenloy, Derek J.; Tan, Jack Wei Chieh; Chao, Tze-Fan; Li, Yi-Heng; Lim, Shir Lynn; Chan, Koo Hui; Loh, Poay Huan; Chai, Ping; Yeo, Tiong Cheng; Low, Adrian F.; Lee, Chi Hang; Foo, Roger; Tan, Huay Cheem; Yip, James; Rao, Sarita; Honda, Satoshi; Yasuda, Satoshi; Kajiya, Takashi; Goto, Shinya; Yan, Bryan P.; Zhou, Xin; Figtree, Gemma A.; Mamas, Mamas A.; Kim, Yongcheol; Jeong, Young-Hoon; Kim, Moo Hyun; Park, Duk-Woo; Park, Seung-Jung; Richards, A Mark; Chan, Mark Y.; Lip, Gregory Y.H.; Chew, Nicholas W.S.

Abstract

Background
Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050.

Methods
Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades.

Findings
Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population).

Interpretation
This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor.

Funding
This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).

Citation

Goh, R. S. J., Chong, B., Jayabaskaran, J., Jauhari, S. M., Chan, S. P., Kueh, M. T. W., …Chew, N. W. (2024). The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions. The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, 49, Article 101138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101138

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jun 25, 2024
• Online Publication Date: Jul 10, 2024
• Publication Date: 2024-08
• Deposit Date: Aug 8, 2024
• Journal: The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 49
• Article Number: 101138
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101138
• Keywords: Global burden; Cardiovascular disease; Risk factors; Mortality; Disability-adjusted life years; Asia
• Public URL: https://keele-repository.worktribe.com/output/878030