Routine measurement of cardiometabolic disease risk factors in primary care in England before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic: A population-based cohort study

Ho, Frederick K.; Dale, Caroline; Mizani, Mehrdad A.; Bolton, Thomas; Pearson, Ewan R.; Valabhji, Jonathan; Delles, Christian; Welsh, Paul; Nakada, Shinya; Mackay, Daniel; Pell, Jill P.; Tomlinson, Chris; Petersen, Steffen E.; Bray, Benjamin; Ashworth, Mark; Rahimi, Kazem; Mamas, Mamas; Halcox, Julian; Sudlow, Cathie; Sofat, Reecha; Sattar, Naveed

Abstract

Background: This study estimated to what extent the number of measurements of cardiometabolic risk factors (e.g., blood pressure, cholesterol, glycated haemoglobin) were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and whether these have recovered to expected levels. Methods and findings: A cohort of individuals aged ≥18 years in England with records in the primary care—COVID-19 General Practice Extraction Service Data for Pandemic Planning and Research (GDPPR) were identified. Their records of 12 risk factor measurements were extracted between November 2018 and March 2024. Number of measurements per 1,000 individuals were calculated by age group, sex, ethnicity, and area deprivation quintile. The observed number of measurements were compared to a composite expectation band, derived as the union of the 95% confidence intervals of 2 estimates: (1) a projected trend based on data prior to the COVID-19 pandemic; and (2) an assumed stable trend from before pandemic. Point estimates were calculated as the mid-point of the expectation band. A cohort of 49,303,410 individuals aged ≥18 years were included. There was sharp drop in all measurements in March 2020 to February 2022, but overall recovered to the expected levels during March 2022 to February 2023 except for blood pressure, which had prolonged recovery. In March 2023 to March 2024, blood pressure measurements were below expectation by 16% (−19 per 1,000) overall, in people aged 18 to 39 (−23%; −18 per 1,000), 60 to 79 (−17%; −27 per 1,000), and ≥80 (−31%; −57 per 1,000). There was suggestion that recovery in blood pressure measurements was socioeconomically patterned. The second most deprived quintile had the highest deviation (−20%; −23 per 1,000) from expectation compared to least deprived quintile (−13%; −15 per 1,000). Conclusions: There was a substantial reduction in routine measurements of cardiometabolic risk factors following the COVID-19 pandemic, with variable recovery. The implications for missed diagnoses, worse prognosis, and health inequality are a concern.

Citation

Ho, F. K., Dale, C., Mizani, M. A., Bolton, T., Pearson, E. R., Valabhji, J., Delles, C., Welsh, P., Nakada, S., Mackay, D., Pell, J. P., Tomlinson, C., Petersen, S. E., Bray, B., Ashworth, M., Rahimi, K., Mamas, M., Halcox, J., Sudlow, C., Sofat, R., & Sattar, N. (in press). Routine measurement of cardiometabolic disease risk factors in primary care in England before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic: A population-based cohort study. PLoS Medicine, 21(11), Article e1004485. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004485

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Oct 4, 2024
• Online Publication Date: Nov 26, 2024
• Deposit Date: Dec 2, 2024
• Publicly Available Date: Dec 2, 2024
• Journal: PLOS Medicine
• Print ISSN: 1549-1277
• Electronic ISSN: 1549-1676
• Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 21
• Issue: 11
• Article Number: e1004485
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004485
• Public URL: https://keele-repository.worktribe.com/output/984886
• Publisher URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1004485