Place and underlying cause of death during the COVID19 pandemic: retrospective cohort study of 3.5 million deaths in England and Wales, 2014 to 2020

Wu, Jianhua; Malfam, Marion; Mamas, Mamas; Rashid, Muhammad; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Deanfield, John E; de Belder, Mark A; Gale, Chris P

Abstract

<h4>Background</h4> The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a high death toll. We aimed to describe the place and cause of death during the COVID-19 pandemic. <h4>Methods</h4> This national death registry included all adult (aged =18 years) deaths in England and Wales between 1 st January 2014 and 30 th June 2020. Analyses were based upon ICD-10 codes corresponding to the underlying cause of death as stated on the Medical Certificate of Cause of Death. Daily deaths during COVID-19 pandemic were compared against the expected daily deaths estimated using Farrington surveillance algorithm for daily historical data between 2014 and 2020, by place and cause of death. <h4>Findings</h4> Between 2 nd March and 30 th June 2020, there was an excess mortality of 57,860 (a proportional increase of 35%) compared with the expected deaths, of which 50,603 (86.2%) were COVID-19 related. Almost half the excess deaths occurred in care homes (25,611 deaths) where deaths were 55% higher than expected. One fifth of the excess deaths occurred in hospital (15,938 deaths; a proportional increase of 21%) with the remainder occurring at home (16,190 deaths; a proportional increase of 39%). At home, only 14% of 16,190 excess deaths were related to COVID-19, with 5,963 deaths due to cancer and 2,485 deaths due to cardiac disease, very few of which involved COVID-19. In care homes or hospices, 61% of the 25,611 excess deaths were related to COVID-19, 5,539 of which were due to respiratory disease and most of these (4,315 deaths) involved COVID-19. In hospital, there were 16,174 fewer deaths than expected which did not involve COVID-19, and there were 4,088 fewer deaths due to cancer and 1,398 fewer deaths due to cardiac disease than expected. <h4>Interpretation</h4> The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a substantial increase in the absolute numbers of deaths occurring at home and care homes. There was a huge burden of excess deaths occurring in care homes, which were poorly characterised, and were likely to be, at least in part, the result of undiagnosed COVID-19. There was a smaller but important and ongoing excess in deaths at home, particularly from cancer and cardiac disease, which suggests avoidance of hospital care for non-COVID-19 conditions. <h4>Funding</h4> The study is unfunded.

Citation

Wu, J., Malfam, M., Mamas, M., Rashid, M., Kontopantelis, E., Deanfield, J. E., de Belder, M. A., & Gale, C. P. (2020). Place and underlying cause of death during the COVID19 pandemic: retrospective cohort study of 3.5 million deaths in England and Wales, 2014 to 2020. MedRxiv, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173302

• Acceptance Date: Aug 14, 2020
• Publication Date: Aug 14, 2020
• Journal: medRxiv
• Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173302
• Public URL: https://keele-repository.worktribe.com/output/426932
• Publisher URL: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173302v1