Nicholas W S Chew
Trends and predictions of metabolic risk factors for acute myocardial infarction: findings from a multiethnic nationwide cohort.
Chew, Nicholas W S; Chong, Bryan; Kuo, Si Min; Jayabaskaran, Jayanth; Cai, Mingshi; Zheng, Huili; Goh, Rachel; Kong, Gwyneth; Chin, Yip Han; Imran, Syed Saqib; Liang, Michael; Lim, Patrick; Yong, Thon Hon; Liew, Boon Wah; Chia, Pow Li; Ho, Hee Hwa; Foo, David; Khoo, Deanna; Huang, Zijuan; Chua, Terrance; Tan, Jack Wei Chieh; Yeo, Khung Keong; Hausenloy, Derek; Sim, Hui Wen; Kua, Jieli; Chan, Koo Hui; Loh, Poay Huan; Lim, Toon Wei; Low, Adrian F; Chai, Ping; Lee, Chi Hang; Yeo, Tiong Cheng; Yip, James; Tan, Huay Cheem; Mamas, Mamas A; Nicholls, Stephen J; Chan, Mark Y
Authors
Bryan Chong
Si Min Kuo
Jayanth Jayabaskaran
Mingshi Cai
Huili Zheng
Rachel Goh
Gwyneth Kong
Yip Han Chin
Syed Saqib Imran
Michael Liang
Patrick Lim
Thon Hon Yong
Boon Wah Liew
Pow Li Chia
Hee Hwa Ho
David Foo
Deanna Khoo
Zijuan Huang
Terrance Chua
Jack Wei Chieh Tan
Khung Keong Yeo
Derek Hausenloy
Hui Wen Sim
Jieli Kua
Koo Hui Chan
Poay Huan Loh
Toon Wei Lim
Adrian F Low
Ping Chai
Chi Hang Lee
Tiong Cheng Yeo
James Yip
Huay Cheem Tan
Mamas Mamas m.mamas@keele.ac.uk
Stephen J Nicholls
Mark Y Chan
Abstract
Understanding the trajectories of metabolic risk factors for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is necessary for healthcare policymaking. We estimated future projections of the incidence of metabolic diseases in a multi-ethnic population with AMI. The incidence and mortality contributed by metabolic risk factors in the population with AMI (diabetes mellitus [T2DM], hypertension, hyperlipidemia, overweight/obesity, active/previous smokers) were projected up to year 2050, using linear and Poisson regression models based on the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry from 2007 to 2018. Forecast analysis was stratified based on age, sex and ethnicity. From 2025 to 2050, the incidence of AMI is predicted to rise by 194.4% from 482 to 1418 per 100,000 population. The largest percentage increase in metabolic risk factors within the population with AMI is projected to be overweight/obesity (880.0% increase), followed by hypertension (248.7% increase), T2DM (215.7% increase), hyperlipidemia (205.0% increase), and active/previous smoking (164.8% increase). The number of AMI-related deaths is expected to increase by 294.7% in individuals with overweight/obesity, while mortality is predicted to decrease by 11.7% in hyperlipidemia, 29.9% in hypertension, 32.7% in T2DM and 49.6% in active/previous smokers, from 2025 to 2050. Compared with Chinese individuals, Indian and Malay individuals bear a disproportionate burden of overweight/obesity incidence and AMI-related mortality. The incidence of AMI is projected to continue rising in the coming decades. Overweight/obesity will emerge as fastest-growing metabolic risk factor and the leading risk factor for AMI-related mortality. This research was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03) and National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MOH-001131). The SMIR is a national, ministry-funded registry run by the National Registry of Diseases Office and funded by the Ministry of Health, Singapore. [Abstract copyright: © 2023 The Author(s).]
Citation
Chew, N. W. S., Chong, B., Kuo, S. M., Jayabaskaran, J., Cai, M., Zheng, H., …Chan, M. Y. (2023). Trends and predictions of metabolic risk factors for acute myocardial infarction: findings from a multiethnic nationwide cohort. The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, 37, Article 100803. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100803
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Acceptance Date | May 14, 2023 |
Online Publication Date | May 31, 2023 |
Publication Date | 2023-08 |
Deposit Date | Oct 6, 2023 |
Journal | The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific |
Publisher | Elsevier |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 37 |
Article Number | 100803 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100803 |
Keywords | Incidence, Metabolic risk factors, Acute myocardial infarction, Public health, Mortality |
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