Skip to main content

Research Repository

Advanced Search

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

Collaborative, COVIDSurg; Collaborative, GlobalSurg; Parry-Smith, William

Authors

COVIDSurg Collaborative

GlobalSurg Collaborative



Contributors

A.S. Abbas
Other

A.M. Abbas
Other

A. Abbas
Other

A.M. Abbas
Other

Abstract

Background
Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.

Methods
The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18–49, 50–69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.

Results
NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.

Conclusion
As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.

Citation

Collaborative, C., Collaborative, G., & Parry-Smith, W. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study. British Journal of Surgery, 108(9), 1056-1063. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjs/znab101

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Feb 12, 2021
Online Publication Date Mar 24, 2021
Publication Date 2021-09
Deposit Date Apr 17, 2024
Journal British Journal of Surgery
Print ISSN 0007-1323
Publisher Wiley
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 108
Issue 9
Pages 1056-1063
DOI https://doi.org/10.1093/bjs/znab101
Public URL https://keele-repository.worktribe.com/output/773525