The 2023 fatal dengue outbreak in Bangladesh highlights a paradigm shift of geographical distribution of cases

Hasan, Mohammad Nayeem; Rahman, Mahbubur; Uddin, Meraj; Ashrafi, Shah Ali Akbar; Rahman, Kazi Mizanur; Paul, Kishor Kumar; Sarker, Mohammad Ferdous Rahman; Haque, Farhana; Sharma, Avinash; Papakonstantinou, Danai; Paudyal, Priyamvada; Asaduzzaman, Md; Zumla, Alimuddin; Haider, Najmul

Abstract

In 2023, Bangladesh experienced its largest and deadliest outbreak of the Dengue virus (DENV), reporting the highest-ever recorded annual cases and deaths. Historically, most of the cases were recorded in the capital city, Dhaka. We aimed to characterize the geographical transmission of DENV in Bangladesh. From 1 January-31 December 2023, we extracted and analyzed daily data on dengue cases and deaths from the Management Information System of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. We performed a generalized linear mixed model to identify the associations between division-wise daily dengue counts and various geographical and meteorological covariates. The number of dengue cases reported in 2023 was 1.3 times higher than the total number recorded in the past 23years (321,179 vs. 244,246), with twice as many deaths than the total fatalities recorded over the past 23years (1705 vs. 849). Of the 1,705 deaths in 2023, 67.4% ( =1,015) died within one day after hospital admission. The divisions southern to Dhaka had a higher dengue incidence/1000 population (2.30 vs. 0.50, <0.01) than the northern divisions. Festival-related travel along with meteorological factors and urbanization are likely to have contributed to the shift of dengue from Dhaka to different districts in Bangladesh.

Citation

Hasan, M. N., Rahman, M., Uddin, M., Ashrafi, S. A. A., Rahman, K. M., Paul, K. K., …Haider, N. (2025). The 2023 fatal dengue outbreak in Bangladesh highlights a paradigm shift of geographical distribution of cases. Epidemiology and Infection, 153, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268824001791

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Dec 2, 2024
• Online Publication Date: Jan 7, 2025
• Publication Date: 2025
• Deposit Date: Jan 22, 2025
• Journal: Epidemiology and Infection
• Print ISSN: 0950-2688
• Electronic ISSN: 1469-4409
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 153
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268824001791
• Keywords: Incidence, Bangladesh, Dengue - epidemiology - mortality, Disease Outbreaks, dengue outbreak, geographical shift, Bangladesh - epidemiology, Male, meteorological factors, Female, Humans
• Public URL: https://keele-repository.worktribe.com/output/1050650
• Additional Information: Copyright: © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press; License: This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.; Free to read: This content has been made available to all.